The drumbeat continues as US emissaries continue to trot the globe in search of an excuse to take military action or further escalate the tensions betweeen the US and Iran. There is no real mystery about the Iran "controversy" in the minds of most mentally and emotionally balanced people. Apart from some notion of Islamaphobia and a financial motive to prop up oil prices, there is no coherent rationale, sane or otherwise, for actually pursuing any course other than diplomacy toward the Iran "nuclear" issue.
Let's be clear for a moment. Iran is in the process of developing technology to enrich uranium. At present, it will take years before they have the actual capacity to enrich enough uranium for use as fuel for electricity generating facilities. That is a peaceful purpose that no entity, no country and not even the United Nations should attempt to deny the Iranian people. The idea that some sort of sanctions must now be imposed because the Iranian leadership may "desire" to develop capacity to enrich uranium sufficient for weapons capability a decade in the future is absurd. No inspector, diplomat or expert has indicated any credible evidence that there is any near term threat or even the possibility of a threat to US or international interests from Iran having nuclear weapons capability.
What we have is a lot of baiting and bellicose rhetoric being tossed out in public. The Arabic and Islamic culture is imbued with the notion of maintaining "face" in a manner not unlike traditional Japanese culture. So when George Bush goes public with the needless provocation that "the US will not allow" Iran to acquire nuclear weapons capability, it is not unexpected that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the hard line Iranian President, would publicly counter that the US has no right to tell Iran what the Iranian government can or cannot do. What we really have is a couple of slow witted and loud mouthed leaders arguing and baiting each other in public. The US is, at the same time, attempting to place pressure on other countries to "choose up sides" for a battle that need never happen.
Yesterday, the price of crude oil went above $70 a barrel heading toward $80. Reports state that current petroleum supplies are the highest they have been in eight years and yet the price of gasoline heads north of $3 per gallon. What is the reason for the price boost? We are told it is the political instability in the Mideast, and particularly with regard to the Iran "crisis." If I were an investor, or owed a lot of favors to oil companies, I would encourage the President to continue just what he is doing. Keep escalating and hyping an illusory "crisis" so that the oil companies can rake in ungodly profits while everyone's attention is focused on fear of another "war" that the US must preemptively invoke to "protect Americans from terrorism."
The flaw in this whole scenario is amply demonstrated by the Iraqi fiasco. When Bush plays Global War games to suit his ego and family financial interests, the consequences are not as predictable as anyone would like. And the real life consequences in Iraq involve thousands of American soldiers killed, tens of thousands maimed and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis killed, maimed or displaced as a result of Bush's incompetent and miscalculated strategy. We have to believe that Bush never understood the gravity of his actions or the stupidity of his policies when he publicly baited the Iraqi insurgency to "bring it on" after he had declared the Iraqi mission "accomplished" following the Shock & Awe invasion. To assume that he knew and understood what he was doing would mean that he is one of the most cruel, evil and murderous leaders that modern history has ever known.
Bush and Ahmadinejad are playing with a fire that neither of them has the ability to control. They are both spoiling for a fight that need not happen. If the US stops the bellicose rhetoric about "keeping military options on the table" and simply goes about a rational diplomatic strategy, the reactionary rhetoric from Iran will subside. But if Bush continues on the same course of provocation and threats [actual and implied] he currently is on, the Iranian leadership will believe that they have no choice except to respond in kind. Turn your rational mind to North Korea. The rhetoric is nowhere near as volatile, yet we know that the country has limited nuclear capability greater than Iran. still we are not experiencing the same brinksmanship with regard to relations with the North Korean government.
Consider that some of the same defensive logic applies. North Korea claimed that it needed to develop a nuclear deterrent because of the hostile and threatening posture and rhetoric coming from Washington. With the US announcing "contingency planning" for tactical nuclear strikes against Iran, does anyone doubt the rationale for the Iranian Government to claim that it maintains the right to take any measures it sees fit to defend itself from hostile foreign threats of attack on its sovereignty?
Let us hope that some measure of sanity will prevail. If the matter remains in the United Nations, there is at least modest reason for optimism. Hopefully, no country would be as unintelligent and misguided as Great Britain was regarding Iraq, and agree to join the US in any unilateral invasion of Iran. The predictions of Nostradamus aside, I have no great desire to see the next World War [predicted to begin in the Middle East] start up this year or the next. If things can hold off long enough to get some indiscriminate testosterone and bellicosity out of the White House, our children may yet have a future.
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