Wizardry at the White House

President Bush, still attempting to maintain the façade of the “Wizard of Oz,” proclaims that the recent National Intelligence Estimate [NIE] supports the Administration’s position, while refusing to declassify and release the NIE document that would either support or disprove his assertion. What we do know from leaks of portions of the NIE findings is that the Iraq fiasco has made the world and the US less safe and more vulnerable to terrorist attack. We also know the intelligence community consensus is that continuation of the current path will lead to greater risk. How these stark findings can be “spun” into an assertion that the report bolsters the Bush Administration’s current policies [rather than calling for a serious rethinking of those policies in light of their lack of success] is a marvel to behold. The excuses and rationale put forward by Administration talking heads are so weak and transparent that the public must be total idiots or be able to suspend belief in reality to accept them.

Press secretary Tony Snow said releasing the full report, portions of which President Bush declassified on Tuesday, would jeopardize the lives of agents who gathered the information.

Since exactly when did this Administration become concerned about protecting the identity and lives of agents and intelligence operatives. More specifically, is it not more likely that this Administration would deliberately disclose and compromise, rather than protect, the identity of CIA operatives who give assessments that contradict the President’s agenda? Consider the fate of Valerie Plame carefully before you answer.

It would also risk the nation's ability to work with foreign governments and to keep secret its U.S. intelligence-gathering methods, Snow said, and "compromise the independence of people doing intelligence analysis."

The first part of the rationale may have some merit. We know that the public admission by the President of “secret prisons” in foreign countries used to hold “suspected terrorists” has created a firestorm of disapproval. These secret enclaves used for extraordinary rendition and torture were not operations that our allies were eager to associate themselves with. These other countries have a far different respect for international law and the Geneva Conventions than Bush appears to have. Public disclosure of such practices in intelligence assessments could undercut the lies and deceit used by the Administration to maintain working relationships with countries not fully aware of the US Administration’s practices.

The second part of the rationale is laughable. The experience of Richard Clark tells us a great deal about the Bush Administration’s true regard for the independence of intelligence and counterterrorism professionals. Clark had worked as a high level intelligence professional on counter terrorism operations under at least four different administrations, GOP and Democrat. He was repeatedly sent back to the drawing board by the Bush - Cheney White House because his “independent” analysis did not match the Bush – Cheney agenda. Subsequent revelations have confirmed the pervasive attitude of the White House. Either you told them what they wanted to hear or you were out of a job in a New York minute. Release of the NIE could scarcely do harm to the “independence” of these professionals that has not already been accomplished through White House intimidation that has gone on for years.

In the bleak National Intelligence Estimate, the government's top analysts concluded Iraq has become a "cause celebre" for jihadists, who are growing in number and geographic reach. If the trend continues, the analysts found, the risks to the U.S. interests at home and abroad will grow… Snow said the report confirms the importance of the war in Iraq as a bulwark against terrorists. "Iraq has become, for them, the battleground," he said. "If they lose, they lose their bragging rights. They lose their ability to recruit."

This phrase and meaning contortion is worthy of circus billing. What we know of the findings by the intelligence professionals is that they report exploitation of the chaotic situation in Iraq by terrorist groups who use the confusion and lack of order as a cover for training extremists in terroristic methods and indoctrination. The report also [and quite logically, I would add] suggests that many of these trainees are sent from or choose to leave Iraq to establish cells and train others in different parts of the world. One obvious reason is that the situation in Iraq has deteriorated to the point that it is an unsafe environment even for the terrorists. Active combat training in guerilla and urban warfare is supplied by the uncontrolled environment in Iraq. It provides a real life "boot camp" that allows these extremists to try out and hone their skills and training. However, unless they are intimately involved in the sectarian and tribal militias and death squads running rampant in Iraq, these Islamic extremists trained to be terrorists find it safer to leave Iraq than to stay and risk being killed in the crossfire of the Iraqi civil war. Their time in Iraq is a temporary way station. Perpetuating the chaos in Iraq, as noted by intelligence experts, thus serves as a recruitment and training tool for global terorrists. We have reduced the Iraqi citizenry to residents in the functional equivalent of a large artillery range or mock battleground where competing teams conduct "war games" more for the sake of miklitary exercises than for the achievement of actual control and stabilization of the battleground. Traditionally, military exercises to train troops have been conducted in deserted areas to prevent civilian casualties. Unfortunately for the Iraqi civilians, the US occupation seems to have dispensed with that precaution.

The battle in Iraq had nothing to do with Al Qaida at the beginning, and has very little to do with Al Qaida now. Al Qaida was not a presence or contender for a ruling regime in Iraq before the US invasion, and does not now seek to govern the country. The current battle is simply about restoring some semblance of a rule of law in an otherwise lawless environment. It is not, in any rational sense, a battleground between the US and international terrorist groups. The battle is between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions attempting to position themselves for control in any resulting governance of Iraq. The deaths of more than 300 Iraqis per month, as a result of sectarian violence, tells us that the war is for control of the Iraqi territory and not some epic "struggle for civilization." The US has lost the war to control the government of Iraq, in failing to install a proxy regime. The US has legitimate concerns about what form of centralized regime or balkanized republics will ultimately arise out of the chaos the US invasion and occupation have precipitated. But it is by no means clear that continued occupation of the country will further US interests. Indeed, the NIE briefing strongly suggests the opposite. In any event, Iraq is clearly NOT a bulwark against terrorists or a "central front" in the war on terrorism.

It is time to pull back the curtain and expose the Wizard as a charlatan. When Intelligence professionals candidly assess the situation, military experts evaluate the conditions and available options, humanitarian agencies investigate and report on the circumstances on the ground, and all of them say that the mission has failed, it is time to at least consider a correction in course or policy adjustment. Unfortunately, the Bush Administration would choose to ignore all of the available evidence and exhort us to support the “stay the course” mantra. There are examples of such behavior: Custer at the Little Big Horn, the Titanic in the North Atlantic, and the Light Brigade charge in North Africa. None of these examples are particularly confidence-inspiring toward the leadership. In the Wizard of Oz, Dorothy and her pals learned that success lay not in chasing some useless and impossible quest, but rather in facing the truth that was right before them and within themselves. Perhaps that is the fiction to which we ought to be paying attention, instead of the “Snow” being broadcast by the White House.