“A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.” By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus;
The official word is in; the situation in Iraq is in dire straits. At the risk of sounding overly optimistic, we may hope the report will put an end to the absurd commentary by Vice President Cheney painting a rosy picture of the conflict and the bright prospects of “winning.” There will be no effective progress toward a solution to the tragic situation in Iraq until the Administration and Congress are able to step back and obtain a realistic perspective of the actual situation in Iraq. This is made substantially more difficult by circumstances that foster disinformation. The previous attacks, including assaults by US forces, upon reporters operating as embedded and independentjournalists has drastically choked the flow of information regarding the situation on the ground. Moreover, the Bush Administration treatment and censorship of embedded journalists has discouraged such reporting efforts and undermined public confidence in such reports as well. Indeed, the more reliable reports about the Iraqi situation now come from foreign journalists and reporters for Arab and independent news organizations operating in the Mid East Region.
Another important piece of information in the National Intelligence Estimate is the identification of the primary risks and obstacles to improvement of the situation. "Corruption"is one central factor. ” This factor has many dimensions, but the impact is largely the same. It undermines the confidence that can rationally be placed in any proposal put forward by an Administration that has both fostered corruption and failed to take any reasonable steps to stop corrupt activity. In the minds of the public, this raises the notion that the Administration is corrupt and cannot be trusted.
The numerous reports of corruption and mismanagement respecting funds allotted for support and reconstruction in Iraq support a belief that the Bush Administration is either totally incompetent in its mission to rebuild the Iraqi infrastructure, or that it is complicit in the corrupt diversion of billions of dollars. Why then, should Congress approve billions more for such purpose without greater assurance regarding how the money will be spent?
The recent reports about complete failure of training initiatives to function as local police forces also indicate that the Bush Administration is inept in its mission to create stabilizing conditions in Iraq. Reports of large training facilities built but never used, along with Olympic swimming pools and other luxuries not clearly tied to the purpose of the mission. The participants in the training have taken the pay, weapons and training and then deserted in very large numbers. Many of these deserters are believed to operate in local sectarian militia forces.
The wisdom of placing confidence, as the Bush Administration does, on the Iraqi government and Maliki is certainly questionable. By all appearances, the Maliki government has been walking a tightrope that maintaining support of the Shiite factions that oppose US involvement and concessions to the Sunnis on one side, and maintaining personal protection and substantial personal wealth as a result of maintaining a role as Bush’s agent in Iraq. Maliki makes some critical statements toward Washington to create an appearance of independence for his sectarian Shiite supporters and contradictory statements about his intent to crack down on local Shiite militias to end the sectarian violence. Would the Iraqi government act in the manner that it does if the Green Zone protection or US backed creature comforts were not provided?
The "way forward" needs the perspective of stepping back to carefully and realistically assessing the current situation. That perspective would compel a different and more practical approach to the problem. More than likely, a regionally negotiated political solution, rather than a militarily imposed solution would become the primary objective. Allocated funds would be directed to efforts that actually yield results and those awarded contracts would be responsible for completion of contract work and subject to reasonable accounting procedures.
It is true that, despite being led into Iraq by deception and unlawful conduct by the White House, the US is now present in the middle of a disastrous conflict. The practical problem is how to achieve the best possible outcome while extricating US troops from the country. That process cannot happen as long as Bush maintains an unrealistic “full speed ahead” and “damn the torpedoes” approach to the situation in Iraq.
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