As days pass, we learn more about the incident at the Butler, PA rally and yet are still left with major areas of speculation. We do know the identity of the shooter, and something of his background, but we will not likely know his mind, motivation, or intent. He was killed by Secret Service or police sniper fire within seconds of his firing the AR-15 assault weapon. We are left to speculate about what may have caused Crooks, a 20-year-old middle class youth who was described as a loner who liked guns, to actually go to the rally armed and fire the weapon. We know that he was a registered GOP member, when relatively few of his peers are formally registered as members of either party. We also have learned that some time ago he contributed $15 to a progressive get out the vote organization [NOT the Democratic Party, as media tend to imply]
Reflecting on these events and facts, the GOP should be concerned that a Gen Z member of a white middle class GOP affiliated family in a small western Pennsylvania town that was a member of a local gun club would seek to eliminate Trump [if that were his true intent]. The demographics and politics suggest that these would be prime characteristics for MAGA followers. Another factor is his contribution to an organization seeking to encourage voting. While some may want to infer alliance with Democrats, it must also be considered that the current GOP seeks to suppress rather than encourage voting by the general population. It is not easy to identify many GOP “get out the vote” organizations because of the party’s anti-democratic characteristics. Both Trump and his surrogates have taken the position that they would not commit to honor the 2024 election results
So, why would a youth who apparently believed in conservative values and policies, and politically aware enough to register to vote with party affiliation, view Trump as a threat to America? While we are not likely to reach any certain answer to that question, it does suggest that the GOP might be well advised to shift some of its focus away from wild conspiracy claims and demonization of the Democratic Party threat to the nation toward some internal reflection upon defects in its message and policies under Trump and the effect such policies are having on younger members of the GOP and Trump’s “Base.” Most current GOP operatives are so infected or inebriated with the narcissism of Trumpism that they may be unable or unwilling to engage in critical reflection. But they fail to do so at their own peril. Crooks had practice and training with weapons and should have been able to hit his target with at least one of the multiple rounds fired from the semi-automatic weapon. yet he missed Trump as a target. It is possible that Crooks, faced with the enormity of his actions, flinched enough to just miss a solid strike. Plenty of research suggests actually killing someone is not easy or romanticized as in movies and TV. That is a reasonable inference, IF we assume Crooks' true intent was assassination.
If they could accept that "one of their own" could view a Trump victory as a sufficient threat to democracy and the country to motivate an attempt on his life, the important question is not whether there will be more attempts on his life, but whether that disaffection and distrust might manifest in lesser forms, but still injurious to Trump and Project 2025. It would be far easier for Gen Z voters to simply not vote for Trump at the polls or not vote at all, if they shared even a fraction of the doubts and disaffection that Crooks must have felt about the GOP standard bearer. And without reflection and close analysis, that abandonment by Gen Z voters might be something the Trump Campaign never saw coming.
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