The situation in Lebanon is truly dangerous. To understand the enormity of danger, we must look at the geopolitical context. Hezbollah understandably, but foolishly, makes rocket attacks on northern Israel. These attacks are in the context of Israeli genocide against Palestinians in Gaza [over 41,000 killed so far], murder of Palestinians in detention in the west Bank [hundreds documented], and annexation of Palestinian land as "State Lands" in the West Bank [not unlike Russian annexation of Crimea]. But it is a bad bet for Hezbollah for several reasons. First, Israel has apparent "unconditional" support from the US government for its military aggression, even if Israel has few if any OTHER allies willing to support its military plans. Second, Israel respects no international laws or standards in actions it will take to "defend the safety" of Israel. The "exploding pagers" strategy was arguably "effective," if one ignores the hundreds of innocent civilians, including children killed in the blasts. Third, Netanyahu does not fear all-out war with a neighbor, and indeed invites such a wider conflict to shield him from loss of the PM status and criminal prosecution for corruption. He is shielded and supported by an Ultra-Orthodox faction in the Knesset who struck a deal to support Netanyahu's genocidal campaign, as long as youths from that faction were exempt from military service and actually fighting in Netanyahu's war. The old political maxim applies: "when you are in hot water politically, start a war!"
Netanyahu knows that Iran or any other supporter of Hezbollah or the Palestinians will be reluctant to step in aggressively to challenge Israeli genocide. He attacks anyone publicly and objectively calling out his actions as liars and slanderers. Netanyahu petulantly and arrogantly points to attacks on Israel as "justification," but conveniently ignores the hypocrisy involved when those attacks are provoked and fueled by Israel's own oppressive conduct, some of which have been documented as international war crimes. But the overall situation remains that a conflict neither side can "win" by force. Israeli superior armaments will continue to support massive and increasingly brutal and immoral assaults in Palestine and Lebanon. Palestinians and Lebanese have no option but resistance, since even in "peacetime" Israel has continued oppression and usurpation of their lands. Israel's rejection of the concept of a two-state solution confirms its true motivation. It is fair to say that Palestinians have as much reason to fear from this Israeli regime as Israelis have to fear Palestinian terrorism. Netanyahu has no qualms about borrowing from the Nazi Germany "Final Solution" playbook. He would and seems to be pursuing genocide and extinction of Palestinians and permanent occupation of Palestinian lands. Short of that option, Netanyahu seeks a permanent "concentration camp" for Palestinians with Israeli complete control of Palestinian entry and exit, food supplies and commerce, and health and medical resources. This strategy has never worked long term, whether in Nazi Germany, US WWII Japanese Detention Camps, Bosnia, Tamil oppression in Sri Lanka, or elsewhere. It has temporary expedience, but long-lasting damaging implications.
The broader danger lies in the fact that no one, including the US government, seems willing to stand up to Netanyahu and his Israeli "defense mission." Allowing a self-serving despot, armed with huge resources of highly lethal weapons and no restraint, to continue to wage collective punishment in violation of international law invites wider conflict. Politically, Palestinians and their supporters, who do NOT seek to justify the Hamas October 7 attack, but who strongly protest Israeli genocide are being silenced in the US. They are charged with asinine accusations of being "antisemitic." [NOTE: "semitic" is an archaic term describing descendants of many middle eastern peoples that genetically include Jews AND Palestinians. So, logic compels the conclusion that Israel's genocide of Palestinians is "antisemitic!" It is a political ruse, a sham argument.]
Any politician who dares object to Israeli genocide and US support for it is attacked by the huge bankroll, influence, and resources of AIPAC. They are effectively silenced by threat of losing their elective office, as well as false claims of antisemitism and public shaming. There is also a broader and time sensitive context. Right now, Russia is engaged in territorial aggression in Ukraine and Putin and Lavrov have even whispered the threat of nuclear options. Constraints and international monitoring of Iranian development of nuclear capability were abandoned by Trump when he was in office. No one can be certain of current progress. And North Korea is making noises about ramping up nuclear capability. So, it is not hyperbolic to suggest that Netanyahu's invitation to a broader conflict could trigger global consequences. As a practical matter, this becomes time sensitive leading up to the US presidential election because it is unclear whether Harris would continue to provide Netanyahu the same level of "cover" that Biden has done. This might explain the urgency of Netanyahu's current offensive in Lebanon and push to evacuate northern Gaza. Netanyahu almost certainly understands that if he loses PM status, just as if Trump loses the US election, criminal prosecution will swiftly follow. So, for Netanyahu, self-interest "trumps" best interests of Israeli citizens, Palestinians, and international law.
At present, Netanyahu is acting like a deranged tyrant standing in large meeting hall holding a hand grenade and threatening to pull the pin, while his agents run amok murdering innocent women, children, and other civilians in the ruse of eliminating the Hamas threat. No one seems willing to stop Netanyahu and demand a sane approach to put out the fire in the Middle Eastern cauldron. We can only hope that someone will intercede before the madman ignites the world.
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